---
name: Earnings Preview
slug: earnings-preview-2
category: Data
description: Earnings Preview builds a biotech or pharma earnings brief using consensus estimates, surprise history, guidance sensitivity, and nearby FDA catalysts. Use it to assess what may matter most at the next print, especially for med names with trial or regulatory events.
github: "https://github.com/agentii-ai/agentii-investment-intelligence/tree/main/plugins/vertical-plugins/bio-pharm/skills/agentii/earnings-preview"
language: Python
stars: 203
forks: 16
install: "npx degit https://github.com/agentii-ai/agentii-investment-intelligence/tree/main/plugins/vertical-plugins/bio-pharm/skills/agentii/earnings-preview ~/.claude/skills/earnings-preview"
installs_to: ~/.claude/skills/earnings-preview
source_path: plugins/vertical-plugins/bio-pharm/skills/agentii/earnings-preview/SKILL.md
collection_size: 21
category_size: 762
collection_url: "https://dirskills.com/collections/agentii-ai/agentii-investment-intelligence"
added: 2026-09-05T05:29:51.526Z
last_synced: 2026-09-05T05:29:51.526Z
canonical_url: "https://dirskills.com/skills/earnings-preview-2"
---

# Earnings Preview

Earnings Preview builds a biotech or pharma earnings brief using consensus estimates, surprise history, guidance sensitivity, and nearby FDA catalysts. Use it to assess what may matter most at the next print, especially for med names with trial or regulatory events.

**Install:**

```bash
npx degit https://github.com/agentii-ai/agentii-investment-intelligence/tree/main/plugins/vertical-plugins/bio-pharm/skills/agentii/earnings-preview ~/.claude/skills/earnings-preview
```

## README

> Methodology inspired by publicly taught earnings-preview frameworks; all text is an original paraphrase.

## Defaults

| Parameter | Default Value | Rationale |
|-----------|---------------|-----------|
| surprise_window | 8 quarters | Standard surprise history window |
| include_catalysts | true | Med prints move on catalysts as much as EPS |
| guidance_sensitivity | true | Guidance is the swing factor for pharma |

## Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per `contracts/preflight.md`. Propagate X-Agentii-Trace per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md`.

## Triggers

- "Preview [biotech ticker]'s upcoming earnings."
- "What should I expect at [ticker]'s next print?"
- "How has [ticker] surprised historically?"
- "Which catalysts land near [ticker]'s earnings date?"
- "Build an earnings preview with consensus estimates."
- "What's the guidance risk for [ticker] this quarter?"
- "Summarize the last few quarters for [ticker]."
- "Earnings + FDA calendar overlap for [ticker]."
- "What are the swing factors for [ticker]'s print?"
- "Historical reaction to [ticker]'s earnings surprises."

## Production Grounding

- Med prints have TWO drivers: financials (revenue/EPS/guidance) and catalysts (PDUFA/AdCom/readouts). The catalyst overlay is mandatory — a clean quarter can be undone by a CRL days earlier.
- For pre-revenue biotechs, the print is mostly about cash runway + pipeline updates; consensus EPS is secondary.
- Grounding frameworks: `references/knowledge-frameworks.md` (道/法 review knowledge).

## Data Source Priority

1. `search_earnings_calendar` — estimates, actuals, surprise history, next date.
2. `search_xbrl_facts` — revenue/EPS/margin trends.
3. `search_documents`/`read_source_*` — prior-quarter commentary and guidance.
4. Knowledge layer: `search_investment_cases` for historical print reactions.

## Methodology

### Retrieval Scope
unstructured_document_search

### Retrieval Strategy
1. Resolve the earnings event: `search_earnings_calendar` for dates/estimates/surprises.
2. Pull fundamentals trend: `search_xbrl_facts` key line items.
3. Catalyst overlay: nearest PDUFA/AdCom/readout vs print date.
4. Ground with historical cases (print reactions) via knowledge tools.

### Temporal Scope
See frontmatter temporal_scope block.

### Tool Allowlist
See frontmatter allowed_tools.

### Protocol
1. Event & estimates
2. Fundamental trend
3. Catalyst overlay
4. Swing-factor synthesis

## Modes

- **Standard** (default): estimates + surprises + guidance.
- **Pre-revenue**: runway + pipeline + readout framing.
- **Catalyst-overlap**: print framed around nearby FDA events.

## Tool Fallbacks

| Failure | Fallback |
|---------|----------|
| search_earnings_calendar empty | Use filings (`search_documents`) for dates; annotate coverage_gap |
| No catalyst data | Flag "catalyst overlay unavailable" |
| Knowledge tools empty | Proceed with structured data only |

## Output File

`{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_earnings-preview_{affix}.md`

## Output Structure

1. **Executive Summary** — setup for the print in 2-3 sentences
2. **Consensus & Surprise History** — estimates table + surprise record
3. **Guidance & Swing Factors** — guidance risk analysis
4. **Catalyst Overlay** — FDA events near the print
5. **Historical Context** — cases with /v/ citations
6. **Coverage Gaps** — degraded flags

## Error Handling

| Error | Fallback |
|-------|----------|
| Estimates missing | Present fundamentals trend only; flag |
| Date uncertain | Use calendar's best estimate + annotate |

## Memory Load

See `contracts/memory-load.md`.

## Snapshot

See `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

## Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs.

## References

- `contracts/citation-and-memory.md`
- `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`
- `contracts/memory-load.md`
- `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`
- `contracts/preflight.md`
- `references/knowledge-frameworks.md`